It should come as no surprise that supporters of the upcoming levy on November 8th are already repeating the oft-stated mantra that if the levy fails, the value of your home (or business) will decline. For those that pay attention to levy campaigns, this line is trotted out pretty much every time.
And let's face it; people who are voting for a tax increase need to justify the extra money. While we're all supportive of the kids, it's still a tax increase. So if we're going to justify voting for it, being able to do so by saying "the value of my house will go up" makes it easier to stomach.
Of course, the pro-levy side doesn't actually say that the value of your house will go up. Instead they say you need to vote for the levy to "protect your property values" and similar statements. It's people's desire to see the positive that makes them translate that into "your property value will go up."
I think it's time we put this to bed once and for all.
Without question, we have experienced the worst meltdown in housing in a very long time. Certainly worse than the 1980s (which was caused by sky-high interest rates, and remember that today the rates are at all-time lows), and statistically worse than the Great Depression as well.
Yes, through all that, apparently if you live in Hilliard your house is now worth only 4.2% less than it was in 2005, which was arguably the height of the market.
Yet, apparently, if the levy fails, the value of your house will go down.
Really?
By how much?
I mean, if 4.2% is the drop for the worst housing crisis in living memory, how bad could a drop from a failed levy actually be?
And that's before we consider that passing the levy means higher real estate taxes, which tends to give people more cause for concern when purchasing a property than a lot of people realize. (If it didn't, everyone would buy houses in Bexley, Upper Arlington and Dublin, and districts like Hilliard, Olentangy and Westerville wouldn't even get people looking...)
So let's face facts: voting down a levy has no real impact on your property value. Nor does voting up a levy.
What matters is how good the education is that the children receive.
And anyone that thinks that a few cuts to non-core educational activities is somehow going to cause the teachers of the district to not continue to perform such a wonderful job every day in the classroom, well, that's an insult to those very same hard-working teachers.
I have full confidence in the teachers and other staff in the Hilliard City School District that no matter what happens on November 8th, they will continue to work hard and provide our children with the education they need and deserve.
After all, it's for the kids.
Right?
All I have is anecdotal evidence, but a good friend who had his Dublin/HCSD home on the market this Spring had a bone fide offer withdrawn after the levy failed, because the buyer didn't want to spend all that money to buy a home in a school district that might be in trouble (of the course that buyer has probably found out that all the suburban districts around here are in the same boat).
ReplyDeleteWhile we might want to use averages and other statistics to analyze the real estate market, the reality is that particular buyers are interested in particular houses, and the value they place on it (ie the price they are willing to pay) depends on many factors.
Clearly the home prices in UA and Bexley are influenced by the quality of the schools. Contrast that to downtown housing, which is driven by location and lifestyle, and clearly not the desirability of the school district.
Without question, it would be harder to sell a family-sized home in Hilliard if the school district is perceived to be in trouble. Homebuilders know that - that's why one of them donated a half-million or so to the Pickerington schools when they threatened to cut sports in the middle of the building boom. The builders knew that the demand for new housing would dry up if potential buyers thought the school district was in trouble.
We might be seeing some of that in Hilliard now if the new home market was as hot as it was not that long ago.
Paul, the thing is that the district is already in trouble. A levy failing doesn't mean anything, other than that the voters have told the district to make do with what they've got.
ReplyDeleteWe reject the notion that a failed levy means a failing school system. We have a long way to go from Excellent with Distinction to Failing.
But, like yourself, we continue to call for community dialogue on how we fix the problem, because repeated requests for tax increases are not it...
How can you expect the district to make do with what they have when the district has added over 900 students since 2005 and our state funding has continued to decrease every year AND the district has made 10's of millions in cuts?
ReplyDeleteYou have to look at the facts...
School districts make towns desirable to live in. If the school district is in trouble, yes...people will not want to move in, therefore the housing market will suffer. Look at what has happened in southwest city schools, for example.
This issue is about maintaining our current programming. Both curricular and extra curricular. Non passage of this levy means that schools, students and teachers will suffer. Taking away VITAL programming and support that the teachers need to make this such a great school district.
No one WANTS to pay higher taxes. But until the STATE changes the way we fund our schools, large districts, like Hilliard, will continue to lose state funding and have to make decisions like putting a levy on the ballot.
Just an FYI...for the average home in Hilliard, it is about $1/day. I think that it is worth some sacrifice to maintain the EXCELLENT WITH DISTINCTION rating that our district has!
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ReplyDelete@Buckeye Gal
ReplyDeleteWe're not interest in rhetoric on this blog, only facts.
What is your point with 900 more students?
Have you looked at actual facts?
Since 2005, 900 additional students is an increase of about 6% of the total enrollment.
Meanwhile, revenues have increased from $123m to $157m
An increase of 28% !
I think the district needs to learn to make do with what it's got, don't you?
@ForHilliardKids, can you please post where you got the revenue increase stats? I'm curious...thanks!
ReplyDelete@cakesalot
ReplyDeleteThe numbers come from the district itself. Each year they produce a five year forecast which generally contains projections from the next five years and also the previous three years "actual" numbers. Over time, these actuals have been collated together which allows us to see a historical trend.
Hope that helps.
I'd suggest reviewing the histories of property sales and values in central OH surburban districts that have had repeated difficulty in passing school issues...specifically, ask appraisers what the impacts might have been on property values; they're bottom-line folks, ultimately reporting to even more bottom-line underwriters. And perhaps Hilliard's major growth spurt (and subsequent ongoing property value increases, at rational rates) had some connection to voters repeatedly approving school issues. Doug Parker, former HCSD member
ReplyDeleteThere are so many ways to answer Doug.
ReplyDeleteLet's just put it bluntly: the only people who "suffer" lost property value when a levy fails are those trying to sell their house and leave the community.
Those of us in it for the long haul take any minor blip in stride because we know the long-term effect is negligible.
And no, I don't believe for a moment that our increases had anything to do with passing levies. If you were honest about the real estate market, you'd admit that it's all about what developers of new neighborhoods set the values at.
And that has nothing to do with schools or levies, and everything to do with the monthly payment, which is dictated by low interest rates and buy-downs by large developers.
It's precisely the same reason tuition costs have skyrocketed -- cheap money. If the student loan payment is kept low by low interest rates and long loan terms, the naive student will pay more for the tuition.
So, sorry Doug, not buying it. Literally.